We don't just show the models – we measure them. Here is each model's real track record on daily temperature (day & night) over the last 30 days.
Short answerOver the last 30 days, TV2 Vejret predicted the daily temperature (day & night) best in Denmark – mean error 0.63°, within 1 degree 83% of the time. Worst was YR (1.86°). Measured versus ERA5 across 24 Danish towns.
Ranking · accuracy
Daily temperature (day & night) · 2026-06-16 to 2026-07-15 · 1440 town-days per model
1. TV2 Vejretwithin ±1°
83%
2. ICONwithin ±1°
75%
3. GFSwithin ±1°
58%
4. DMIwithin ±1°
46%
5. YRwithin ±1°
25%
#
Model
Mean error
Within ±1°
Within ±2°
🏆 1
TV2 Vejret ECMWF
0.63°
83%
95%
2
ICON DWD (Tyskland)
0.76°
75%
95%
3
GFS NOAA (USA)
1.13°
58%
86%
4
DMI HARMONIE
1.24°
46%
83%
5
YR MET Norway
1.86°
25%
58%
How we measure it
For each of 24 Danish towns we take every model's archived forecast for the daily temperature (day & night) and compare it to the actually measured temperature, day by day for 30 days (2026-06-16–2026-07-15). "Mean error" is the average absolute difference in degrees (MAE) – lower is better. "Within ±1°/±2°" shows how often the model lands that close. That's 1440 town-days per model.
Important caveats, so the numbers are read honestly: the metric is only daily temperature (day & night) over a single 30-day window – not precipitation, wind or longer lead times, where the order may differ. As ground truth we use the ERA5 reanalysis, which is built by ECMWF; this may modestly favour ECMWF-based models. DMI HARMONIE is a high-resolution model that is often strongest on local short-range detail and is Denmark's official warning authority – strengths this single metric doesn't capture. That is exactly why we show all models side by side instead of crowning one permanent winner.
Data: archived forecasts and ERA5 via Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0). Updated 2026-07-21.
Over the last 30 days (2026-06-16 to 2026-07-15), TV2 Vejret predicted the daily temperature (day & night) best in Denmark, with a mean error of 0.63° – within 1 degree 83% of the time, across 24 Danish towns versus ERA5 reanalysis. No model is always best; TV2 Vejret led for this period and this metric (daily temperature (day & night)).
Is DMI's forecast accurate?
DMI's model (HARMONIE) hit the daily temperature (day & night) within 1 degree 46% of the time over the last 30 days. DMI is a high-resolution model, especially strong on short-range local detail, and is Denmark's official warning authority. On this particular metric – daily temperature (day & night) over 30 days versus ERA5 – ECMWF and ICON led. That's why we show every model side by side rather than trusting one.
How do you measure which model is best?
For 24 Danish towns we compare each model's archived forecast for the daily temperature (day & night) against the actually measured temperature (ERA5 reanalysis), day by day for 30 days. We compute the mean absolute error (MAE) and how often each model lands within 1 and 2 degrees. That's 1440 town-days per model.
Why does tjekvejr compare several models?
Because no single model is best every day. Some days DMI, ECMWF and YR agree – the forecast is reliable. Other days they disagree – the weather is hard to predict, whichever app you use. By showing them side by side and measuring their track record over time, you can judge how much to trust the outlook.